Some predictions go viral for a day and disappear.
And some build a reputation so compelling that by the time the next tournament arrives, the entire football world is paying attention.
German mathematician Joachim Klement falls firmly into the second category.
He predicted Germany would win the 2014 World Cup.
Predicted France would win in 2018.
And predicted Argentina would win in 2022.
He was right all three times.
And now he’s made his 2026 pick.
Netherlands tipped to win 2026 World Cup by mathematician who correctly predicted last three tournaments
According to ESPN, Klement’s statistical model points to the Netherlands as the 2026 World Cup winners, beating Portugal in the final and England falling short at the semi-final stage.
It would deliver the Dutch their first ever World Cup title, having reached the final three times without ever lifting the trophy.
The model that produces these predictions is no simple formula.
Klement factors in GDP per capita.
He accounts for population size, the cultural status of football within the country, FIFA rankings and what he describes as a degree of randomness.
Because football, ultimately, always involves fortune.
The results have been remarkable.
But Klement himself is the first person to urge caution.
“Because I was right three times in a row, people now think that this model is unbeatable,” he told ESPN.
“It’s completely irrational. It’s like playing the lottery. I always say that whoever places a bet based on my prediction are beyond help.”
He was equally blunt about the original 2014 prediction that started all of this, expressing genuine shock when it came true.
“The first time I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil, because all the experts had pointed out that no European team had ever won a World Cup in South America.”
That detail is worth sitting with.
He built a model he expected to demonstrate that predicting the winner was effectively impossible.
Instead, it correctly identified Germany, France and Argentina on three consecutive attempts.
Whether the Netherlands can finally end their own extraordinary final curse remains to be seen.
Ronald Koeman’s side have Virgil van Dijk anchoring the defence and Tijjani Reijnders driving the midfield, with a squad deep enough to compete with any nation in the tournament.
They open against Japan on June 14.
And somewhere in Germany, a mathematician who doesn’t believe in his own model is watching very closely.
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