Sunday’s clash between Manchester City and Arsenal carried huge weight. Many saw it as the Premier League title decider. The result did not settle the race completely. But it shifted the momentum.
City edged a tense 2–1 win at the Etihad. That victory moved them within three points of Arsenal, with a game still in hand. The gap could disappear quickly.
For Arsenal, the timing could not be worse. The defeat has reopened the title race just when they looked in control.
With only a handful of matches remaining, every point now carries massive importance. Despite that setback, the numbers still favour Arsenal.
The Opta supercomputer has updated its latest prediction, and it still backs the Gunners to finish top. Arsenal hold a 72.97% chance of winning the league, while City sit at 27.03%.
The model even projects a two-point gap between the sides by the end of the season. That prediction keeps the race alive, but the pressure is shifting.
City return to action against Burnley next. A win there could send them top before Arsenal play again. That scenario would completely change the mood around the title run-in.
Elsewhere, the battle for Champions League spots is tightening. Manchester United look almost certain to qualify after their win over Chelsea, with a 98.64% probability.
Liverpool and Aston Villa also strengthened their positions with late victories. Liverpool now hold a seven-point cushion, while Villa remain firmly in control of their place.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s form has collapsed at the worst moment. They have dropped out of the top five and now face a serious risk of missing European football entirely.
At the bottom, the picture looks clearer. Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley appear destined for relegation, both given a 100% probability.
The final relegation spot remains uncertain. Tottenham Hotspur currently sit in danger with 56.58% chances of getting relegated, with West Ham United close behind with 38.47% probability.
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